Last updated October 19, 2026
Owners writing a growth plan, lenders sizing a market and city officials pitching a downtown all reach for the same question: are small businesses growing? One national figure hides the answer. New filings, owner sentiment, hiring and survival odds each move on their own clock, and in 2026 they point in different directions.
In October 2026, our research team compiled the newest published data on U.S. small businesses from the Census Bureau, the SBA Office of Advocacy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Banks and NFIB. We led with monthly series that run through September 2026, calculated growth rates from the published counts, and added an Arizona cut. We define a small business as a firm with fewer than 500 employees. The official count of small businesses still rests on 2022 Census data, the latest the SBA uses in its September 2026 profiles, so we report it once and label its year.
In the sections below, we break down small business growth statistics by new business applications, owner optimism, job creation, survival rates and Arizona results.
Summary of Findings
- Americans filed 4,927,840 new business applications from January to September 2026, 15.3% more than in the same months of 2025.
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index read 97.9 in September 2026, just under its 52-year average of 98.0.
- Small businesses produced 35.9% of U.S. net new jobs from March 2024 to March 2025, down from 88.9% a year earlier.
- 51.4% of private-sector establishments that opened in the year ended March 2020 were still operating five years later.
- Arizona business applications rose 22.7% in January to September 2026 against the same months of 2025.
Small Business Growth Statistics: 2026 Snapshot
In the table below, we compare the headline growth measures for U.S. small businesses, ordered from the newest data to the oldest.
Key Small Business Growth Statistics, 2026
| Metric | Latest value | Period covered | Released |
|---|---|---|---|
| New business applications | 4,927,840 | January to September 2026 | October 2026 |
| Change vs. same months of 2025 | +15.3% | January to September 2026 | October 2026 |
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | 97.9 | September 2026 | October 2026 |
| Small business share of net new jobs | 35.9% | March 2024 to March 2025 | September 2026 |
| Employer firms expecting higher revenue | 56% | 2025 survey, next 12 months | 2026 |
| Five-year survival rate of new establishments | 51.4% | Opened in year ended March 2020 | 2026 |
| Number of U.S. small businesses | 36,207,130 | 2022 (latest Census count) | 2025 |
Our researchers took three main findings from this data:
- We found that formation demand keeps climbing. Applications for the first nine months of 2026 reached 4,927,840, already 86.9% of the full 2025 total of 5,671,836.
- We found that sentiment and hiring lag formation. Optimism sat at 97.9 in September 2026, and small firms’ share of net new jobs fell to 35.9% in the latest BLS year.
- We found that the 36,207,130 small business count is the newest official figure, though it describes 2022. The Census Bureau has not yet released the 2023 employer data needed to update it.
New Business Applications Over Time, 2016 to 2026
In the table below, we compare annual U.S. business applications, the subset the Census Bureau flags as high-propensity (likely to hire), and the year-over-year change. We summed the Bureau’s monthly, not seasonally adjusted counts; the 2026 row covers January to September, released October 14, 2026.
U.S. New Business Applications by Year, 2016 to September 2026
| Year | Business applications | Change vs. prior year | High-propensity applications | High-propensity share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2,948,338 | Baseline | 1,225,243 | 41.6% |
| 2017 | 3,182,674 | +7.9% | 1,259,781 | 39.6% |
| 2018 | 3,486,829 | +9.6% | 1,330,929 | 38.2% |
| 2019 | 3,498,990 | +0.3% | 1,316,191 | 37.6% |
| 2020 | 4,356,498 | +24.5% | 1,518,956 | 34.9% |
| 2021 | 5,390,816 | +23.7% | 1,841,954 | 34.2% |
| 2022 | 5,062,563 | -6.1% | 1,722,399 | 34.0% |
| 2023 | 5,469,302 | +8.0% | 1,848,540 | 33.8% |
| 2024 | 5,224,176 | -4.5% | 1,715,458 | 32.8% |
| 2025 | 5,671,836 | +8.6% | 1,708,842 | 30.1% |
| 2026 (Jan to Sep) | 4,927,840 | +15.3% vs. Jan to Sep 2025 | 1,386,358 | 28.1% |
U.S. New Business Applications per Year, 2016 to 2026
*2026 covers January to September.
Our researchers took three main findings from this data:
- We found that 2026 is on pace for a record. The first nine months ran 15.3% ahead of January to September 2025, the year that set the prior high of 5,671,836.
- We found that the high-propensity share fell again, to 28.1% in 2026 from 41.6% in 2016. More filings now come from ventures unlikely to add payroll.
- We found that high-propensity applications grew 4.7% in January to September 2026, a third of the pace of all applications. Track this series to gauge future job creation.
Small Business Optimism Over Time, January to September 2026
In the table below, we compare NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index for 2026 with the same months of 2025, along with its Uncertainty Index. An optimism reading of 98.0 equals the index’s 52-year average.
NFIB Small Business Optimism and Uncertainty by Month, 2025 and 2026
| Month | Optimism Index, 2025 | Optimism Index, 2026 | Uncertainty Index, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 102.8 | 99.3 | 91 |
| February | 100.7 | 98.8 | 88 |
| March | 97.4 | 95.8 | 92 |
| April | 95.8 | 95.9 | 88 |
| May | 98.8 | 95.3 | 91 |
| June | 98.6 | 97.4 | 89 |
| July | 100.3 | 99.8 | 91 |
| August | 100.8 | 98.7 | 89 |
| September | 98.8 | 97.9 | 90 |
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index by Month, 2025 and 2026
Our researchers took three main findings from this data:
- We found that optimism ran below its 2025 level in eight of nine months of 2026. The January to September average fell from 99.3 in 2025 to 97.7 in 2026.
- We found that uncertainty stays high. The Uncertainty Index held between 88 and 92 all year, against a historical average of 68.
- We found that owners still plan to hire: a net 17% planned to create jobs in the next three months as of September 2026. The Federal Reserve’s 2025 survey, published in 2026, found 56% of employer firms expected revenue gains, down from 72% in the 2017 and 2018 surveys.
Small Business Job Creation: Share of Net New Jobs
In the table below, we compare the share of net new private-sector jobs that small businesses created over the long run and in the two latest annual windows, for the U.S. and Arizona. The March 2024 to March 2025 rows come from the SBA profiles released in September 2026.
Small Business Share of Net New Jobs, 1995 to March 2025
| Geography and period | Net new jobs from small businesses | Total net new jobs | Small business share |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S., 1995 to 2024 | 20.7 million | 33.9 million | 61% |
| U.S., March 2023 to March 2024 | 1.2 million | 1.4 million | 88.9% |
| U.S., March 2024 to March 2025 | 228,240 | 636,626 | 35.9% |
| Arizona, March 2023 to March 2024 | 80,016 | 94,137 | 85.0% |
| Arizona, March 2024 to March 2025 | 11,425 | 19,036 | 60.0% |
Our researchers took three main findings from this data:
- We found that net job creation slowed in the latest year. U.S. establishments added a net 636,626 jobs from March 2024 to March 2025, and small businesses contributed 228,240 of them.
- We found that the small business share swung from 88.9% to 35.9% in one year. Single-year shares move with the business cycle, so the 61% average since 1995 remains the steadier benchmark.
- We found that Arizona small businesses held a larger share than the nation in the latest year: 11,425 of the state’s 19,036 net new jobs, or 60.0%.
Small Business Survival Rates by Opening Year
In the table below, we compare how many new private-sector establishments survived one, three and five years, grouped by the year ended March in which they opened. This BLS series covers establishments of every size, runs through March 2025, and is the latest release; most new establishments belong to small firms.
Survival Rates of New Private-Sector Establishments by Opening Year, 2015 to 2024
| Opened (year ended March) | 1-year survival | 3-year survival | 5-year survival |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 79.6% | 61.4% | 50.2% |
| 2016 | 79.6% | 61.2% | 50.7% |
| 2017 | 79.1% | 60.7% | 51.6% |
| 2018 | 79.4% | 62.1% | 51.9% |
| 2019 | 79.2% | 64.0% | 51.5% |
| 2020 | 80.9% | 63.6% | 51.4% |
| 2021 | 79.1% | 59.1% | Not reported |
| 2022 | 76.3% | 56.3% | Not reported |
| 2023 | 78.2% | Not reported | Not reported |
| 2024 | 77.9% | Not reported | Not reported |
Survival Rates of New Private-Sector Establishments by Opening Year
Opening year ended March.
Our researchers took three main findings from this data:
- We found that about half of new establishments reach year five. Five-year survival stayed between 50.2% and 51.9% for every cohort from 2015 to 2020.
- We found that the 2022 cohort posted the weakest one-year survival in the table at 76.3%, and its three-year rate of 56.3% trails every earlier cohort. That class opened during the 2021 to 2022 application surge.
- We found that the newest cohort, opened in the year ended March 2024, kept 77.9% of its establishments through its first year. The 2015 cohort kept 34.7% open after ten years.
Arizona Small Business Growth Statistics vs. the U.S.
In the table below, we compare Arizona with the U.S. on application growth, establishment openings and closings, and small business count. For state rankings, see our Small Business Growth by State: 2026 Report.
Arizona vs. U.S. Small Business Growth Metrics, 2022 to 2026
| Metric | Arizona | U.S. |
|---|---|---|
| Change in applications, January to September 2026 vs. 2025 | +22.7% | +15.3% |
| New business applications, January to September 2026 | 123,141 | 4,927,840 |
| New business applications, 2025 | 135,679 | 5,671,836 |
| Small business establishment openings, March 2024 to March 2025 | 26,411 | 1,068,489 |
| Small business establishment closings, March 2024 to March 2025 | 19,307 | 1,034,813 |
| Small businesses (2022, latest Census count) | 706,640 | 36.2 million |
| Share of private-sector employees (2022) | 42.6% | 45.9% |
Arizona New Business Applications per Year, 2016 to 2026
*2026 covers January to September.
Our researchers took three main findings from this data:
- We found that Arizona applications grew 22.7% in January to September 2026, outpacing the national rise of 15.3%. The state’s nine-month total of 123,141 already equals 90.8% of its 2025 total.
- We found that Arizona small businesses opened 26,411 establishments and closed 19,307 in the year to March 2025, a net gain of 7,104. Nationally, small business openings beat closings by a narrower 33,676.
- We found that Arizona’s small business employment share of 42.6% sits 3.3 points below the national 45.9%. Local owners who win recognition through programs like our small business awards compete in a market where large employers hold a bigger share of jobs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many small businesses are there in the U.S. in 2026?
The latest official count is 36,207,130 small businesses, based on 2022 Census data that the SBA Office of Advocacy still uses in its February 2026 FAQ and September 2026 profiles. That count grew 11.3% from 32,540,953 in 2018.
How fast are new small businesses being started in 2026?
Americans filed 4,927,840 business applications from January to September 2026, 15.3% more than in the same months of 2025. The full 2025 total was 5,671,836.
What percentage of small businesses survive five years?
For establishments that opened in the year ended March 2020, 51.4% were still operating five years later. Every cohort from 2015 to 2020 landed between 50.2% and 51.9%.
Are small businesses growing in Arizona?
Yes. Arizona business applications rose 22.7% in January to September 2026 against the same months of 2025. Small businesses created 60.0% of the state’s net new jobs from March 2024 to March 2025.
Methodology
Our research team compiled this report in October 2026 from published third-party data; Voted Number One did not run a survey for it. Application totals are our sums of the Census Bureau’s monthly, not seasonally adjusted Business Formation Statistics through September 2026; recent months may be revised. Optimism data come from NFIB’s monthly survey of its members. Job creation and Arizona figures come from the SBA Office of Advocacy’s 2026 profiles, which draw on BLS Business Employment Dynamics. Survival rates come from BLS and cover all private establishments. Revenue expectations come from the Federal Reserve Banks’ Small Business Credit Survey, a convenience sample. The small business count uses 2022 Census data, the latest the SBA publishes. We calculated every change and share as (new value / old value) minus 1, or part / total. For related research, see our guide to the best small business awards programs.
Requesting a Copy of This Report
If you’d like a PDF copy of this report, you can reach out here.
Sources
- Business Formation Statistics. U.S. Census Bureau. October 2026. Washington, DC.
- NFIB Small Business Economic Trends, September 2026. NFIB Research Center. October 2026. Nashville, TN.
- 2026 Small Business Profile: United States. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. September 2026. Washington, DC.
- 2026 Small Business Profile: Arizona. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. September 2026. Washington, DC.
- 2025 Small Business Profile: United States. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. June 2025. Washington, DC.
- 2025 Small Business Profile: Arizona. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. June 2025. Washington, DC.
- Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business, February 2026. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. February 2026. Washington, DC.
- Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business, December 2021. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. December 2021. Washington, DC.
- Business Employment Dynamics, Table 7: Survival of Private Sector Establishments by Opening Year. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2026. Washington, DC.
- 2026 Report on Employer Firms: Findings from the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey. Federal Reserve Banks. 2026. United States.
- Small Business Credit Survey: Expected Increase in Revenue: Employer Firms. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). July 2026. St. Louis, MO.
Written by Savannah Davis, Voted Number One team. Savannah works with the local business owners who take part in the Voted Number One community awards.